Compositional Cyber-Physical Epidemiology of COVID-19

Jin Ro, Nathan Allen, Weiwei Ai, Debi Prasad, Partha Roop

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Received date: 30th April 2020

COVID-19 pandemic has posed significant challenges globally. Countries have adopted different strategies with varying degrees of success. Epidemiologists are studying the impact of government actions using scenario analysis. However, the interactions between the government policy and the disease dynamics are not formally captured. We, for the first time, formally study the interaction between the disease dynamics, which is modelled as a physical process, and the government policy, which is modelled as the adjoining controller. Our approach enables compositionality, where either the plant or the controller could be replaced by an alternative model. Our work is inspired by the engineering approach for the design of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs). Consequently, we term the new framework Compositional Cyber-Physical Epidemiology (CCPE). We created different classes of controllers and applied these to control the disease in New Zealand and Italy. Our controllers closely follow government decisions based on their published data. We not only reproduce the pandemic progression faithfully in New Zealand and Italy but also show the tradeoffs produced by differing control actions.

Read in full at medRxiv.

This is an abstract of a preprint hosted on a preprint server, which is currently undergoing peer review at Scientific Reports. The findings have yet to be thoroughly evaluated, nor has a decision on ultimate publication been made. Therefore, the results reported should not be considered conclusive, and these findings should not be used to inform clinical practice, or public health policy, or be promoted as verified information.

Scientific Reports

Nature Research, Springer Nature