Management strategies in a SEIR model of COVID-19 community spread

Anca Radulescu, Kieran Cavanagh

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Received date: 25th March 2020

The 2019 Novel Corona virus infection (COVID-19) is an ongoing public health emergency of international focus. Significant gaps persist in our knowledge of COVID-19 epidemiology, transmission dynamics, investigation tools and management, despite (or possibly because of) the fact that the outbreak is an unprecedented global threat. On the positive side, enough is currently known about the epidemic process to permit the construction of mathematical predictive models. We construct and analyze here one first step: that of adapting a traditional SEIR epidemic model to the specific dynamic compartments and epidemic parameters of COVID-19, as it spreads in an age-heterogeneous community. We analyze the current management strategy of the epidemic course (travel bans, service closures and interruptions, social distancing). We generate predictions, and assess the efficiency of these control measures, in the context in which their sustainability is currently being questioned.

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This is an abstract of a preprint hosted on a preprint server, which is currently undergoing peer review at Scientific Reports. The findings have yet to be thoroughly evaluated, nor has a decision on ultimate publication been made. Therefore, the results reported should not be considered conclusive, and these findings should not be used to inform clinical practice, or public health policy, or be promoted as verified information.

Scientific Reports

Nature Research, Springer Nature