On Topological Properties of COVID-19: Predicting and Controling Pandemic Risk with Network Statistics

Mike So, Amanda M.Y. Chu, Agnes Tiwari, Jacky N.L. Chan

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Received date: 20th September 2020

The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused more than 24 million confirmed infected cases and more than 800,000 people died as of 28 August 2020. While it is essential to quantify risk and characterize transmission dynamics in closed populations using Susceptible-Infection-Recovered modeling, the investigation of the effect from worldwide pandemic cannot be neglected. This study proposes a network analysis to assess global pandemic risk by linking 164 countries in pandemic networks, where links between countries were specified by the level of ‘co-movement’ of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases. More countries showing increase in the COVID-19 cases simultaneously will signal the pandemic prevalent over the world. The network density, clustering coefficients, and assortativity in the pandemic networks provide early warning signals of the pandemic in late February 2020. We propose a preparedness pandemic risk score for prediction and a severity risk score for pandemic control. The preparedness risk score contributed by countries in Asia is between 25% to 50% most of the time after February and America contributes close to 50% recently. The high preparedness risk contribution implies the importance of travel restrictions between those countries. The severity risk score of America is greater than 50% after May and even exceeds 75% in July, signifying that the control of COVID-19 is still worrying in America. We can keep track of the pandemic situation in each country using an online dashboard to update the pandemic risk scores and contributions.

Read in full at medRxiv.

This is an abstract of a preprint hosted on a preprint server, which is currently undergoing peer review at Scientific Reports. The findings have yet to be thoroughly evaluated, nor has a decision on ultimate publication been made. Therefore, the results reported should not be considered conclusive, and these findings should not be used to inform clinical practice, or public health policy, or be promoted as verified information.

Scientific Reports

Nature Research, Springer Nature