SEAMHCRD deterministic compartmental model based on clinical stages of infection for COVID-19 pandemic in Sultanate of Oman

Abraham Varghese, Shajidmon Kolamban, Vinu Sherimon, Eduardo Lacap Jr., Saad Ahmed, Jagath Sreedhar, Hasina Al Harthy, Huda Al Shuaily

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Received date: 9th October 2020

The present novel corona virus (COVID-19) infection has engendered a worldwide crisis across the world in an enormous scale within a very short period. The effective solution for this pandemic is to recognize the nature and spread of the disease so that appropriate policies can be framed. Mathematical modelling is always at the forefront to understand and provide an adequate description about the transmission of any disease. In this research work, we have formulated a deterministic compartmental model (SEAMHCRD) including various stages of infection, such as Mild, Moderate, Severe and Critical to study the spreading of COVID-19 and estimated the model parameters by fitting the model with the reported data of ongoing pandemic in Oman. The steady state, stability and final pandemic size of the model has been proved mathematically.  The various transmission as well as transition parameters are estimated during the period from June 8th - July 30th, 2020. Based on the current estimated parameters, the pandemic size is also predicted for another 100 days. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the key model parameters, and corresponding basic reproduction number has been computed using Next Generation Matrix (NGM) method. As the value of basic reproduction number (R0) is 0.9761 during the period from June 8th - July 30th, 2020, it is an indication for the policy makers to adopt appropriate remedial measures like social distancing and contact tracing to reduce the value of R0 to control the spread of the disease.

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This is an abstract of a preprint hosted on a preprint server, which is currently undergoing peer review at Scientific Reports. The findings have yet to be thoroughly evaluated, nor has a decision on ultimate publication been made. Therefore, the results reported should not be considered conclusive, and these findings should not be used to inform clinical practice, or public health policy, or be promoted as verified information.

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