Several countries in one: a mathematical modeling analysis for COVID-19 in inner Brazil

Gabriel Berg de Almeida, Thomas N Vilches, Claudia Pio Ferreira, Carlos Magno Castelo Branco Fortaleza

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Received date: 24th April 2020

Early 2020 and the world experiences its very first pandemic of globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-Cov-2, is thecausative agent of severe pneumonia and rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems. In Brazil, theemergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas is a concern. In a huge and heterogeneous country, with regionaldisparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for aninner Brazil and what can we do to control infection transmission in each one of these locations? In this paper, a mathematicalmodel was developed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by the intensity andtype of control measures. Mitigation strategies rely on social distancing of all individuals, and detection and isolation of infectedones. The model shows that control effort varies among cities. The social distancing is the most efficient method to controldisease transmission but improving detection and isolation of infected individuals can help loosening this mitigation strategy.

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This is an abstract of a preprint hosted on a preprint server, which is currently undergoing peer review at Scientific Reports. The findings have yet to be thoroughly evaluated, nor has a decision on ultimate publication been made. Therefore, the results reported should not be considered conclusive, and these findings should not be used to inform clinical practice, or public health policy, or be promoted as verified information.

Scientific Reports

Nature Research, Springer Nature