System analysis and mathematical modeling of the disease caused by the 2019-nCoV coronavirus strain

Sergey Kostarev, Natalya Tatarnikova, Oksana Kochetova, Tatyana Sereda

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Received date: 16th February 2020

A particular problem at the beginning of the second millennium is the epidemic caused by coronaviruses. In 2002-2003, new strains of viruses appeared – SARS-CoV SARS, in 2012, MERS-CoV. In 2019-2020, the epidemic caused by the coronavirus strain 2019-nCoV, which belong to the Beta-CoV group, is a threat. Different types of coronaviruses infect humans, cats, birds, dogs, cattle, pigs and hares, bats, camels and other animals. Coronaviruses have a single-stranded RNA genome, which encodes 4–5 structural proteins, including proteins of the outer membrane, matrix and small membrane. The complete 2019-nCoV genome is stored online at GenBank: MN908947.3. Coronaviruses have some unique features in RNA transcription. The RNA minus chain serves as a matrix for the synthesis of both new genomic and subgenomic RNAs. To develop a model of human resistance to the disease caused by the coronavirus family, elements, connections and ways of protecting the Human-Virus-Environment system were identified. The destructive functions of sixteen non-structural and structural proteins of the strain 2019-nCoV are considered. Deterministic and statistical models of the development of the danger of infection of the cells have been developed. A parameterized system for protecting a person from coronavirus damage has been developed.

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This is an abstract of a preprint hosted on a preprint server, which is currently
undergoing peer review at Scientific Reports. The findings have yet to be
thoroughly evaluated, nor has a decision on ultimate publication been made.
Therefore, the results reported should not be considered conclusive, and these
findings should not be used to inform clinical practice, or public health
policy, or be promoted as verified information.

Scientific Reports

Nature Research, Springer Nature